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A Case Study into the Control of Epidemics - China's Model to Curb Coronavirus

World governments, health professionals, experts and citizens should take note of China's major measures to close a megacity, and other cities, curtail town and village gatherings and events in a behemoth effort to curb national and international spread of the Novel Coronavirus outbreak.

China's responsible actions will serve as a model to any country that might fall future victim to a similar epidemic.

That China has had the audacious ability to close the city of Wuhan, Hubei province -  the epicenter of the current Novel Coronavirus outbreak, and other cities by closing public transportation by air, land and sea, as well as by dessauding public gatherings at a time of the most significant public holiday, the Lunar New Year celebrations, speaks heavily of the nation's recognition of the potential gravity of the epidemic weighed against the country's international responsible to curb a greater pandemic.

By shutting down public transportation - planes, trains, subways, buses and ferries in and around Wuhan, where authorities are rushing to complete two news hospitals to come with the demand for medical evaluation and treatment, the Chinese government has gone farther than any modern government in a quest to control a public emergency.

Extending the Lunar New Year holiday until February 2 also accords China an additional vehicle to contain the Novel Coronavirus. With many business and schools closed and with villagers dissuaded from unnecessary travel, China is fighting a growing national emergency that could be a lot worse if not for the measures already taken. 

Deaths in the outbreak now number 82, with most recorded in Wuhan. No deaths have yet been reported outside China.  Some 2, 901 cases of the Wuhan virus have been confirmed within China by the government, 28 cases other cases across Asia, three in Europe, six in North America and five in Australia. 

But according to the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong newspaper, citing Hong Kong academics, it has been estimated that virus patients reached 43, 590 in Wuhan last Saturday. The newspaper's website reported that lead researcher and dean of Hong Kong University's  faculty of medicine, Gabriel Leung, said his team estimated there were 25,630 patients showing symptoms in Wuhan and that the number would double in 6.2 days, according to mathematical modeling based upon infection figures worldwide as of Saturday.

Sadly, the Hong Kong researchers warned that a pandemic might be close. They hypothesized that the number of infections in megacities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing, would peak between late April and early May. They said that at the height of the epidemic, as many as 150,000 new cases would be confirmed every day in Chongqing because of its large population and its intense travel volume with Wuhan. Chongqing has a population of 30.48 million. 

China's already draconian actions to contain the Novel Coronavirus, might demand even more precedent setting measures to bring China back to health, while providing the wider world with a case study into required epidemic management and containment for the new era. 

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