Before I delve any farther into this title of the Caribbean in 2020, I must re-admit that I was born in the Caribbean - on the island of Barbados, the most easterly of the islands-chain and that my father was born on the island of Grenada. I am a former weekly Columnist and newspaper reporter holding a very socially conscious pen prior to my immigration to the United States (US), on Christmas Day, 1984.
Furthermore, I should add that political pressures forced my migration to the US from the land where my naval sting is buried. No apologies have ever been offered to me from the people or government of Barbados for usurping my young life on the island. However, to this date, I maintain that had I not migrated to the US and made a transformation to democracy, I would have become a socialist revolutionary in the Caribbean.
With that said, I hereby opine that the Caribbean in 2020, politically and socially, will look like any previous year of the post independence era. Unlike the times of the Haitian Revolution of 1801; the Cuban Revolution of 1958; the advent of Caribbean integration via the West Indies Federation, 1958-1962; and Maurice Bishop's revolution in Grenada, in 1979; the Caribbean today appears satisfied once tourism remains strong and when balance of payments are achieved by those nations hocking the industry.
As manufacturing is plied as a subsistence element of national economies or as an offshore production shop of some major western entity, any realization to full Caribbean output remains elusive to the region. This is self-evident from Antigua to Trinidad and Tobago and in all the islands northward to the Bahamas.
The New Caribbean Man that William Demas, the late forward thinking Governor of the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), envisioned back in the 1970s, has failed to materialize. The Caribbean in 2020 will not become masters of technology as Demas thought necessary in order to escape the relics of colonialism and its impacts of stuntedness in favor of a new dawn of economic viability.
Rebuilding economies and gaining access to global financial markets, while inviting foreign investment, will figure highly in Barbados, Jamaica, St. Lucia and elsewhere in 2020. As Barbados, plagued by a government inherited empty treasury, gains a deeper fiscal footing, as recently indicated by its moving up six-places on the Standard and Poor's index for creditworthiness, other islands in the Caribbean will not fair that well in 2020.
Climate Change realities in all of the islands, especially in Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, combined with long-term leadership tenures in Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica, will pose true pressures to the region in 2020.
The recent re-installation of the post of prime minister in Cuba is indicative of the lengths the isle of Fidel Castro will go in 2020 to making the necessary adaptations to meet a changing country, region and world. Guyana, in 2020, could begin to cash in on the discovery of vast offshore oil fields, but political in fighting could slow realizations to oil-wealth.
In 2020, the Caribbean will continue as it has in the past: voided of any wide global ambitions and contented with catering to travelers in order to meet balance of payments.